Next Week Macro Outlook: CPI Data Release, Potentially Further Confirming the Fed's Interest Rate Cut Cycle

December 13th: Despite the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut as scheduled this week and the release of a more dovish signal than expected, the reality challenge faced by the artificial intelligence field has led to a complex and divergent trend in the US stock and bond markets. This week, long-term US Treasury yields rose across the board, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising by about 5 basis points during the "Fed Rate Cut Week." The macro outlook for next week is as follows:Monday 22:30: Federal Reserve Governor Milan speaks;Monday 23:30: FOMC Permanent Voter and New York Fed President Williams speaks on the economic outlook;Thursday 01:30: 2027 FOMC Voter and Atlanta Fed President Bostic speaks on the economic outlook;Thursday 21:30: US November Unadjusted CPI YoY/Core CPI YoY, US November Seasonally Adjusted CPI MoM/Core CPI MoM;Thursday 21:30: US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending December 13th;Friday 23:00: US December University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final, US December 1-year Inflation Rate Expectation final.Next week's release of US CPI data will be a key turning point for the US dollar. If the CPI data is lower than expected (the latest data is 3%, still above the Fed's 2% target), it will further confirm the rationale of the Fed's rate cuts, and the US dollar may face further downward pressure; otherwise, it may reverse this trend.
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