Analysis: Bitcoin Options with a Nominal Value of Approximately $23.8 Billion Set to Expire on December 26th, End of Year May See "Concentrated Liquidation and Repricing of Risk Exposure"

December 14th, On-chain data analyst Murphy stated that approximately $23.8 billion worth of Bitcoin options will expire on December 26th, covering quarterly options, yearly options, and large-scale structured products. This implies that the BTC derivatives market will experience a "concentrated risk exposure clearing and repricing" at the end of the year, where the price may be structurally constrained before expiration but uncertainty will increase post-expiration.From a data perspective, there is a significant amount of Open Interest (OI) stacking at the two closest positions to the current BTC spot price, which are: Put at $85,000: 14,674 BTC and Call at $100,000: 18,116 BTC. In terms of scale, this is not retail behavior but rather high-level long-term funds, most likely entities holding a large amount of BTC spot, such as ETF hedging desks, BTC treasury companies, large family offices, and so on.The Put at a $85,000 strike price is the buyer's "active party," reflecting a strong downside risk hedging demand in the market at that price level. Similarly, the significant Call OI stacking at a $100,000 strike price is not fundamentally "the market being bullish at this level," but rather long-term funds willing to relinquish upside potential at that price level in exchange for current certainty of cash flow and overall risk control. By buying Puts below and selling Calls above, the distribution of BTC returns is compressed within a tolerable range. With OI already highly formed, this $85,000–$100,000 option corridor will structurally influence the BTC price before December 26th, with "implicit upward suppression, passive buffering downward, and fluctuation in the middle range."
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